XRP (XRP)

XRP is currently trading at approximately $1.03, deep in bearish territory on the weekly chart following a prolonged correction from the highs reached in late 2024 and early 2025. The technical picture is unambiguously bearish at current levels and no buying recommendation exists until the specific confirmation trigger described in this signal is reached.

Our analysis projects a likely continuation of downside pressure toward the $0.85 major support zone before any meaningful recovery can establish itself. The $0.85 level represents a historically significant support area where buyers have previously absorbed meaningful selling. A test of this level accompanied by reversal candlestick confirmation on the weekly chart would be the first signal that the downtrend is losing momentum.

The buying opportunity for Muslim investors does not exist at current prices and does not exist at $0.85 support. It exists on the other side of a confirmed weekly breakout above $1.35, which would clear both the immediate resistance cluster and represent a genuine trend reversal signal above the weekly 200 MA at $1.20. This is a Watch signal. Muslim investors should monitor the levels described, avoid buying at current prices, and wait for the specific confirmation before acting.

XRP scores 87 out of 100 Halal under CoinStudy's Halal Crypto Standard. Our Shariah Board Chairman Dr. Usman Quddus reviewed the complete CoinStudy HCS analysis of XRP and confirmed: "This result is correct." XRP passes all five Sharia red-line checks without any concern requiring acknowledgment at the protocol level.

XRP is a digital bridge currency designed for cross-border payment settlement. The XRP Ledger processes genuine financial transactions at settlement speed with minimal fees. No interest-bearing mechanism exists at any protocol level. XRP does not generate yield from lending capital to borrowers. The Proof of Association consensus mechanism operates through genuine network validators rather than a lending or interest-bearing system.

Muslim investors should note that RLUSD, Ripple's stablecoin, is backed by US Treasury bills and carries the same Riba exposure concerns as USDT and USDC. CoinStudy's Halal classification applies to XRP specifically, not to RLUSD. Muslim investors who use RLUSD as a payment settlement instrument alongside XRP should refer to CoinStudy's separate stablecoin guidance on the permissibility of T-Bill backed stablecoins as mediums of exchange.

This signal involves spot buying and holding of XRP only. Do not use margin, leverage, or futures to act on this signal. Do not deposit XRP into lending protocols. Spot holding of XRP is the permissible approach.

XRP's weekly chart as of August 10, 2026 presents one of the clearest and most classically bearish technical setups in the current crypto market. The weekly RSI sits at 32.50 with a continuing downward trajectory, approaching but not yet reaching the oversold threshold of 30. A weekly RSI at 32.50 in a downward direction means momentum remains firmly on the seller's side and no divergence or reversal signal has emerged on this timeframe.

The 200-period Simple Moving Average on the weekly chart sits at $1.20. XRP is currently trading at $1.03, well below this critical long-term trend indicator. The 200 MA on the weekly chart is one of the most respected long-term trend indicators across all financial markets. Trading below it means the long-term trend is down and rallies toward this level are likely to encounter significant selling pressure from market participants who use the 200 MA as a dynamic resistance reference.

The structure of the current move is bearish without ambiguity. There is no reversal signal forming on the weekly chart. The RSI has not reached oversold territory and bounced. No bullish divergence is present. No weekly reversal candlestick has formed at a meaningful support level. The downward momentum confirmed by the RSI direction indicates that the market needs more time and more price discovery before the sellers are exhausted.

The path to $0.85 support is the anticipated next move. The $0.85 level represents the next significant horizontal support area below current prices. A test of this level would bring the weekly RSI further into oversold territory which is the condition that typically precedes meaningful recoveries. The combination of price reaching major support and RSI entering genuinely oversold territory creates the technical foundation for a recovery, but the recovery itself must be confirmed by price action rather than anticipated in advance.

The entry trigger is a confirmed weekly candle close above $1.35. This level is significant because it sits above both immediate resistance at $1.20 and $1.30 and above the weekly 200 MA at $1.20. A weekly close above $1.35 would mean XRP has cleared the 200 MA, broken through the resistance cluster, and established a new weekly higher high. This combination represents a genuine structural shift from downtrend to potential uptrend on the timeframe that matters most for this signal.

The first support sits at $0.95 to $1.00, a round-number psychological level that may slow selling temporarily. This level does not represent a strong structural support area and should not be considered a buying level.

The primary support target sits at $0.85. This is the level our technical analysis identifies as capable of absorbing meaningful selling pressure and providing the base for a genuine recovery. Previous price history shows this area attracted buyers on multiple occasions. A test of $0.85 accompanied by the weekly RSI reaching genuinely oversold territory below 30 would create the technical conditions that historically precede meaningful recoveries.

Deep support exists at $0.70 to $0.75. If $0.85 fails to hold, this area represents the next significant demand zone. A decline to this level would represent a full retest of the pre-2024 bull market base and would create an extreme oversold condition on the weekly RSI that historically produces sharp recoveries.

The first resistance sits at $1.20, corresponding precisely to the weekly 200 MA. This moving average has been a decisive barrier for XRP's recovery attempts in recent months. Any rally from current levels or from $0.85 support that reaches $1.20 should be treated with significant caution because this level represents the convergence of the most watched long-term moving average and a meaningful horizontal resistance zone.

The second resistance sits at $1.30. This level represents a swing high from the recent consolidation period and would need to be cleared for any rally to have genuine continuation potential.

The critical resistance and entry trigger sits at $1.35. A confirmed weekly close above this level would clear all the resistance described above, signal reclamation of the weekly 200 MA with meaningful room above it, and represent the first genuine trend reversal signal on the weekly chart. Until this level is cleared on a weekly closing basis, all rallies should be treated as relief rallies within a downtrend rather than genuine trend reversals.

XRP's fundamental picture in August 2026 is one of the most paradoxical in the entire cryptocurrency market. The project has achieved a collection of genuinely historic milestones in 2025 and 2026 that would have been unimaginable during the years of SEC litigation. Yet the token price has declined approximately 26% in 2026 despite these achievements. Understanding this paradox is essential for Muslim investors evaluating XRP's long-term investment thesis.

The SEC lawsuit concluded in August 2025 with a final judgment confirming that XRP is not a security when sold to retail investors. The SEC and CFTC subsequently issued a joint interpretive framework in March 2026 formally recognizing XRP as a digital commodity under CFTC jurisdiction. This regulatory clarity, five years in the making, removes the single largest structural overhang that suppressed institutional adoption of XRP throughout the 2020 to 2025 period.

Seven spot XRP ETFs launched on NYSE Arca in November 2025, led by products from Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital. By early March 2026, cumulative ETF inflows had grown to over $1.50 billion with twenty-four consecutive days of inflows at launch and Goldman Sachs emerging as the largest disclosed institutional holder across these products.

RLUSD, Ripple's institutional stablecoin, reached $1.72 billion in market capitalization. The XRP Ledger now hosts $3.5 billion in tokenized real-world assets. Ripple acquired prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25 billion, integrating RLUSD into institutional workflows and moving post-trade activity onto XRPL. Ripple received conditional approval for a national trust bank charter from the OCC in December 2025. Over 300 RippleNet partners operate globally.

The fundamental paradox is that these genuine achievements have not translated into sustained XRP price appreciation. Three specific factors explain this divergence. First, only approximately 40% of RippleNet partners currently use XRP directly, meaning the majority of Ripple's payment network growth is not creating direct XRP demand. Second, RLUSD's growth is capturing payment settlement utility that was originally intended for XRP, creating what analysts call a utility gap where institutions prefer RLUSD for settlement rather than XRP precisely because XRP's price volatility makes it less suitable for the stable settlement role. Third, Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP from escrow each month, creating persistent supply-side pressure that offsets demand growth from institutional adoption.

The investment thesis for XRP at the entry trigger above $1.35 rests on whether the CLARITY Act's passage, continued ODL expansion, XRPL tokenized asset growth, and further RLUSD institutional integration eventually translate into direct and recurring XRP demand at a scale that absorbs the monthly escrow release supply. This is a genuinely uncertain fundamental question with strong arguments on both sides.

The primary technical catalyst is a confirmed weekly close above $1.35. This specific event, if it occurs after a test of $0.85 and weekly RSI recovery from oversold territory, would represent the highest-probability entry trigger for the recovery thesis.

CLARITY Act passage through the US Congress would provide the comprehensive crypto regulatory framework that market participants are awaiting and could unlock the next wave of institutional engagement with XRP's payment infrastructure. The DTCC listing and JPMorgan pilot mentioned in available research represent institutional infrastructure being built that could create genuine recurring XRP demand when operational at scale.

ODL expansion, Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity service which uses XRP as a bridge asset for cross-border payment settlement, converting to meaningful transaction volume would be the single most important fundamental catalyst for sustained XRP demand. Current network growth has been impressive but has not yet translated to the direct XRP demand required to offset monthly escrow supply.

The most significant risk is that the $0.85 support level does not hold and XRP continues declining toward $0.70 to $0.75, which would trigger the stop loss on any eventual position entered at the $1.35 breakout. If $0.85 is reached and broken definitively the analysis requires reassessment.

Escrow release supply pressure of up to 1 billion XRP per month is the most persistent structural risk. Each monthly release adds supply into the market at a rate that requires continuous demand growth to absorb. If institutional ETF inflows or ODL transaction demand do not grow at a rate that absorbs escrow releases, supply pressure will continue to cap recovery attempts.

RLUSD's growth representing an internal competitor to XRP's payment utility is a specific and underappreciated risk. If institutions fully migrate to RLUSD for settlement and XRP becomes less necessary as a bridge asset, the token's utility thesis weakens at the exact moment its regulatory clarity is strongest.

A false breakout above $1.35 that fails to sustain above the weekly 200 MA would be a specific and significant risk for investors who enter on the breakout signal. The stop loss at $1.18 protects against this scenario but requires acceptance of a defined loss if the breakout fails.

There is no buy entry at current prices. There is no buy entry at $0.85 support. The strategy is to wait for the specific confirmation trigger.

If XRP declines to the $0.85 support area, monitor the weekly chart carefully. A hammer, bullish engulfing, or morning star forming at $0.85 with the weekly RSI reaching oversold territory below 30 would indicate that the selling is exhausting. This creates additional confluence for the eventual entry but the entry trigger remains the $1.35 weekly breakout.

The buy entry trigger is a confirmed weekly candle close above $1.35. On the first weekly close above this level begin building a spot XRP position. A split entry approach works well here. Enter 50% of the intended position on the confirmed weekly close above $1.35. Add the remaining 50% on any pullback to the $1.35 level that holds as new support, confirming the break and retest structure.

Take Profit 1 is at $1.75. At this level take 50% of the position off and move the stop loss on the remaining position to the entry level to lock in a no-loss trade on the remainder.

Take Profit 2 is at $2.20. Close the remaining position at this level. This target represents a significant recovery toward previous resistance from 2025 consolidation and provides a meaningful reward relative to the entry risk.

The stop loss sits at $1.18 on any position entered after the $1.35 breakout confirmation. A daily close below $1.18 would suggest the breakout was false and would trigger exit of the entire position. The stop at $1.18 sits below both the $1.20 200 MA and the $1.30 resistance turned support, providing a meaningful buffer below the entry while limiting the downside if the breakout fails.

CoinStudy's trading signals are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Every Muslim investor's financial situation differs and position sizing must reflect individual capacity for loss. The stop loss at $1.18 represents approximately 12.6% below the $1.35 entry trigger, which is a wider stop than the Bitcoin signal reflecting XRP's higher volatility. Size your position so that if the stop is triggered the total loss represents no more than 1% to 2% of your total portfolio. For a $10,000 portfolio accepting 1% maximum loss, the maximum XRP position would be $100 divided by 0.126 which equals approximately $794 in XRP exposure. Never use leverage. Never use borrowed funds. Only deploy capital you can genuinely afford to lose without affecting essential financial obligations or Zakat duties.

This signal is for spot buying and holding of XRP only. XRP scores 87 out of 100 Halal under CoinStudy's Halal Crypto Standard with direct confirmation from Shariah Board Chairman Dr. Usman Quddus. Spot buying and holding XRP is permissible. Using margin or leverage to act on this signal involves Riba and is prohibited. Using XRP futures or perpetual contracts involves speculative financial instruments that are not halal. Depositing XRP into lending protocols or exchange earn products to generate yield during the holding period is Riba and must be avoided entirely. RLUSD, Ripple's stablecoin, carries T-Bill reserve concerns and is separately assessed by CoinStudy. Do not confuse XRP's Halal classification with RLUSD's compliance status. If your XRP holdings exceed the Nisab threshold and are held for a full lunar year, Zakat at 2.5% of market value becomes obligatory.

This trading signal is provided by CoinStudy for educational and research purposes only. It is based on price action and candlestick pattern analysis on the weekly timeframe combined with publicly available fundamental research. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a fatwa. The technical analysis reflects chart conditions at the time of publication and markets can change rapidly and without warning. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. CoinStudy is not a licensed financial advisor. Always consult a qualified financial advisor and a qualified Islamic scholar before making investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. This signal will be updated as market conditions develop.